Russia’s Phantom Coup

Analysis of the Prigo Coup

“There are known knowns, things we know that we know; and there are known unknowns, things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns, things we do not know we don't know.” - Donald Rumsfeld.

"Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" - Winston S. Churchill.

"The secret of a perfect psyop is that no one understands it.

The objective is to simultaneously confuse the enemy while achieving a very important goal.

It goes without saying that sooner rather than later we should see the real goals emerging from The Longest Day's strategic play.” - Pele Escobar.

Coup: coup noun ˈkü plural coups ˈküz: a sudden decisive exercise of force in politics and especially the violent overthrow or alteration of an existing government by a small group. - Webster Dictionary.

Mutiny: forcible or passive resistance to lawful authority especially: concerted (see concerted sense 1) revolt (as of a naval crew) against discipline or a superior officer. - Webster Dictionary.

Rebellion: 1. opposition to one in authority or dominance. 2. open, armed, and usually unsuccessful defiance of or resistance to an established government." - Webster Dictionary.

To the Collective West which has set its goal firmly on destabilizing and ultimately destroying and fragmenting Russia, the June 24-25, 2023 attempt at mutiny by the boss of the paramilitary Wagner Group was a godsend.

It couldn't have come at a better time as their NATO-TRAINED and EQUIPPED Proxy fighters in Ukraine have been largely decimated. With the well-touted Ukranian counter-offensive (actually a military oxymoron) going nowhere, Western officials, analysts, and media cannot wait for the outcome of the Prigozhin’s denouement before they went to town to gloat about the imminent termination of the rule of their numero uno nemesis, VV Putin.

C’mon, guys, how can anyone with brains seriously believe that 3,000 rebels with about 250 vehicles can overthrow the government of the Russian Federation?

Was Prigozhin's showy brinkmanship a serious attempt to topple the government of the Russian Federation, or was it a case of deep intelligence manoeuvering by the various agencies of both the West and Russia, or was it a case of an Oligarch with a criminal past desperately trying to save his collapsing economic empire?

Let's attempt to shed some light.

Almost two weeks have passed since Yevgeny Prigozhin launched his farcical uprising. It pays to wait, read and digest the various analyses/perspectives before a serious analytical post-mortem is attempted.

Unfortunately, many commentators in Ghana rushed to town armed with only the propaganda bs they have garnered from the BBC and CNN, and they just regurgitate what their Western sources told them with absolutely no attempt at any critical analysis.

Let's start our foray by taking a look at the principal instigator of the saga, Yevgeny Prigozhin:

Contrary to persistent rumors, Mr. Prigozhin was never President Putin's Cook. He started a sausage stand in his native Saint Petersburg (St Pete) and built it up into a portfolio of restaurants, branched into providing catering services to various institutions, including the government of the Russian Federation. One of the restaurants was in the Kremlin and Mr Putin used it for state functions when he worked as deputy to the then-boss of the city. A shrewd name-dropper, Prigozhin promoted himself as “Putin’s chef.”

Prigozhin is said to have hands in many businesses, many of them shady enough to have earned him two jail terms, one for eight years for mugging a woman. Things get murkier as one tries to understand how a convicted felon came close to “grabbing” political power in Moscow.

It is essential to understand the state of affairs in post-Soviet Russia to begin to appreciate VV Putin, what he stands for, why Russians LOVE and ADORE (even revere him), and why the West so passionately hates him.

Post-Soviet Russia was a total mess - and that is putting it mildly. Boris Yeltsin, so beloved by the West, presided over the collapse of the economy and the authority of the Russian state he inherited from the incredibly naive Gorbachev. Yeltsin surrounded himself with American advisers (the so-called Harvard Boys) who comprehensively did to Russia what they did to Africa's economies in the 1980s - ruthlessly dismantled state enterprises, devalued currencies, and sent millions into penuries, all in the name of economic liberalization.

Vladimir Putin came to power and set himself the onerous task of cleaning the Augean stable by clipping the wings of the powerful Oligarchs who, collectively, were stronger than the Russian state.

Putin set the rules of engagement at a meeting with 21 of the richest men in Russia in the summer of 2000. In exchange for staying out of politics where they used their wealth to sponsor candidates and win political power, Putin offered the oligarchs a deal: ‘Keep your ill-gotten wealth; the expensive mansions, luxurious aircraft, yachts, and corporations, but subject yourself to the authority of the Russian state, or else.

Putin kept his word and allow compliant Oligarchs to keep their loot, but he dealt very harshly with the few that reneged. A good example is Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once one of Russia's richest people who now lives in the United States and is among the leading Putin critics in exile. Khodorkovsky is among the lucky ones - many of the others died in rather mysterious circumstances.

A flamboyant, loud-mouthed, and very capable marketer, Mr. Prigozhin is a Maestro of self-promotion and self-aggrandizement. He is considered one of the Oligarchs that ordinary Russians hated with a passion, understandably so if one remembers what they did to pre-Putin's Russia.

Since the beginning of the SMO, Prigozhn has never lost any opportunity to lambast the top echelons of Russia's military establishment. To the bewilderment of observers, the Wagner boss on several occasions contemptuously lambasted both the Minister of Defense Shoigu, and the Chief of the General Staff, Gerasimov. Although an Oligarch himself, he nevertheless continues to rail against corruption and habitually issues threats to target corrupt elites in Russia.

The Wagner PMC Group:

Western officials and media who often mock the Wagner group as a mercenary outfit staffed by ex-convicts, forget that Russia was just following the trend set by Western nations who organize coups to protect their geopolitical interests in faraway poor countries with immense natural wealth. Examples are the British Aegis and the American Academi (formerly Blackrock) private security companies that provide extensive services for their home governments. The Russias patterned their Wagner PMC along the notorious French Foreign League. In many countries in Africa, the group has helped to stabilize governments where Western forces have failed to perform. Burkina Faso, Mali, and the Central African Republic are some examples. In fact, not only has the Central African Parliament publicly thanked “Wagner,” but the government erected a monument to them.

The Wagner Group has also made its mark in both Syria and Libya. Its epic battle against hardened Ukranian forces in the small city of Backhmut has elevated the group to mythical proportions among Russians.

Contrary to Western mockery, the Wagner Group is an exceedingly capable professional military organization, organized by the Russian military intelligence, GRU, which provides not only the men and the officers but also the weapons (including very advanced and sophisticated ones) plus the logistics and pay the salaries.

In his address to the military commanders who helped stop Prigozhin’s rebels’ march on Moscow, Putin appear to suggest that the Wagner Group had been more effective than the regular troops.

President Putin added: “Those who served and worked for this company, Wagner, were respected in Russia. At the same time, I would like to point out, that I want everyone to be aware of the fact that all of the funding the Wagner Group received came from the state. It got all its funding from us, from the Defence Ministry, from the state budget.

“Between May 2022 and May 2023 alone, the Wagner Group received 86,262 million rubles (approx. $1 billion) from the state to pay military salaries and bonuses… But while the state covered all of the Wagner Group’s funding needs, the company’s owner, Concord, received from the state, or should I say earned, 80 billion rubles ($940 million) through Voentorg as the army’s food and canteen provider. The state covered all its funding needs, while part of the group – I mean Concord – made 80 billion rubles, all at the same time. I do hope that no one stole anything in the process or, at least, did not steal a lot. It goes without saying that we will look into all of this.”

Coming from the proverbial horse’s mouth, this is among the most intriguing part of the Prigozhin rebellion. Is the world to believe that an organization the military intelligence of Russia set up, staffed, and funded remains totally in the dark as it seeks to overthrow the Russian state?

The famous American investigative journalist, Seymour Hersh, shed some light: “So, below is a look at what is going that was provided to me by a knowledgeable source in the American intelligence community:

“I thought I might clear some of the smoke. First and most importantly, Putin is now in a much stronger position. We realized as early as January of 2023 that a showdown between the generals, backed by Putin, and Prigo, backed by anti-Russian extremists, was inevitable. The age-old conflict between the ‘special’ war fighters and a large, slow, clumsy, unimaginative regular army. The army always wins because they own the peripheral assets that make victory, either offensive or defensive, possible. Most importantly, they control logistics. special forces see themselves as the premier offensive asset. When the overall strategy is offensive, big army tolerates their hubris and public chest thumping because SF are willing to take high risk and pay a high price. Successful offense requires a large expenditure of men and equipment. Successful defense, on the other hand, requires husbanding these assets.

“Wagner members were the spearhead of the original Russian Ukraine offensive. They were the ‘little green men’. When the offensive grew into an all-out attack by the regular army, Wagner continued to assist but reluctantly had to take a back seat in the period of instability and readjustment that followed. Prigo, no shy violet, took the initiative to grow his forces and stabilize his sector.

“The regular army welcomed the help. Prigo and Wagner, as is the wont of special forces, took the limelight and took the credit for stopping the hated Ukrainians. The press gobbled it up. Meanwhile, the big army and Putin slowly changed their strategy from offensive conquest of greater Ukraine to defense of what they already had. Prigo refused to accept the change and continued on the offensive against Bakhmut. Therein lies the rub. Rather than create a public crisis and court-martial the asshole [Prigozhin], Moscow simply withheld the resources and let Prigo use up his manpower and firepower reserves, dooming him to a stand-down. He is, after all, no matter how cunning financially, an ex-hot dog cart owner with no political or military accomplishments.

…

“Putin fully backed the army who let Prigo make a fool of himself and now disappear into ignominy. All without raising a sweat militarily or causing Putin to face a political standoff with the fundamentalists, who were ardent Prigo admirers. Pretty shrewd. There is an enormous gap between the way the professionals in the American intelligence community assess the situation and what the White House and the supine Washington press project to the public by uncritically reproducing the statements of Blinken and his hawkish cohorts. - https://open.substack.com/pub/seymourhersh/p/prigozhins-folly?r=3wwyw&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

Here is another brilliant analysis by the distinguished retired Indian diplomat and geopolitical observer, 𝗠.𝗞. 𝗕𝗵𝗮𝗱𝗿𝗮𝗸𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗿: "It wouldn’t have escaped the attention of Russian intelligence analysts that Prigozhin’s ranting and ravings from Donetsk from last autumn and winter began originally on the operational aspects of the Bakhmut war front in Donetsk oblast, but incrementally began acquiring political overtones, culminating finally in his incredible statement that the 𝙧𝙖𝙞𝙨𝙤𝙣 𝙙’ê𝙩𝙧𝙚 of the special military operation in Ukraine since February 2022, was all baloney."

"Even more strangely, this man who physically witnessed the Battle of Bakhmut came to the bizarre conclusion that Kiev or Nato had no 𝙢𝙖𝙡𝙖 𝙛𝙞𝙙𝙚 intentions toward Donbass or Russia."

"The last element is utterly fascinating. The Kremlin is extremely annoyed with Prigozhin for his seditious behavior but is also aware — presumably on the basis of intelligence inputs — that he has been manipulated by Western powers.

Of course, there is going to be a price to pay. Prigozhin will never get back his towering stature as an oligarch with a personal fortune of $1.2 billion or the fabulous lifestyle he led." - https://www.indianpunchline.com/fsb-spooked-the-cia-on-prigozhin-coup/

Russian MP Andrey Kartapolov (four-star general) who heads the State Duma’s Defense Committee explained that the conflict was provoked by Prigozhin’s unwillingness to comply with the Russian Defense Ministry's demand that all military groups should sign contracts with it. “Everybody apart from Wagner… complied. Apart from this gentleman [Prigozhin], who refused.

Faced with this rebuttal, the Russian authorities told the group that it would no longer be involved in the military campaign in Ukraine, Kartapolov stated. “This means that there will be no more money, no more financial or material resources. And for Mr. Prigozhin, money is a factor, an important one, maybe even decisive.”

As a result, the threat of defunding, “excessive and stupid ambitions,” and an emotionally “agitated state” resulted in “high treason and the deceit of [Prigozhin’s] brothers in arms,” Mr. Kartapolov explained.

The (MOAQ) Mother of all Question: How does a convicted foul-mouthed felon get away with not only getting juicy contracts from the Russian military but constantly berating, abusing, and rubbishing the top brass of the organization that feeds him? Not only that, Prigozhin persisted in issuing threats against the state but suffered no consequences whatsoever until he made his "coup" attempt which ended in his being sent to a comfortable Minsk, instead of being prosecuted as both the Russian Prosecutor-General and Putin himself promised.

Were Progzhin's "coup" to be genuine why was the initial reaction of the Russian government so lackadaisical - like waiting for hours before sending forces to the Wagner's headquarters in St. Petersburg where vast sums of money were, allegedly, discovered?

And why did Yevgeny Prigozhin explain his action thusly: “The aim of the march was not to let PMC Wagner be dissolved and to hold the military leadership accountable for the mistakes made during the war.” - Prigozhin

And why was Prigozhin allowed to visit his native St. Petersburg a week after he was supposed to have been banished into exile in Minsk, and after news circulated about vast sums of money were said to have been recovered from a raid on his properties? A few days later, he was reportedly seen on the street of Moscow. So, much for the coup plotter!

These troubling questions might explain why many analysts continue to raise the Maskirovka scenario. See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_deception

The best analyses of the alleged coup were offered by the esteemed Larry Johnson.

Here: https://sonar21.com/russias-academy-award-winning-performance-for-best-coup-prigozhin-scores-best-actor/

And here: https://sonar21.com/prigozhin-will-the-real-slim-shady-please-stand-up/

The famous American journalist, Seymour Hersh chipped in with an insightful piece: https://open.substack.com/pub/seymourhersh/p/prigozhins-folly?r=3wwyw&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

When is a coup, not a coup?

There was a time when military adventurists routinely toppled governments in Africa, especially in West Africa. Luckily, those days are gone, hopefully forever!

Those who lived in those tumultuous days will recognize that Mr. Prigozhin violated all the known rules of coup-making. One of the best books, actually a Primer on how to organize a coup is by Edward Luttwak, whose “Coup d’Etat – A Essential Primer” remain a recommended reading for anyone planning a coup or trying to prevent one.

https://www.amazon.com/Coup-d%C3%89tat-Practical-Handbook-Revised/dp/0674737261

Mr. Luttwak's essential points are:

The commanders of military units in the Capital must be either in on the plot, neutral, or otherwise be prevented from taking action to impede the coup.

Control of communication facilities, radio, tv, and telecom, is critical.

Coups are led by Cols, Lt Cols, and Majors because these men are commanders of battalions and companies and their men know them and will follow their orders even if they don’t know the reason for them.

Speed is essential. Leaders of centers of power that could organize resistance to the coup must be detained or neutralized within a couple of hours.

Needless to say that Yevgeny he Prigozhin/Wagner broke almost all the known rules in the book. He was never a military commander and no senior officer came out to support him. He was about 1200 kilometers away from Moscow, and the police and the military in the capital built barricades to stop any unauthorized movement. Apart from allegedly shooting down an aircraft and some helicopters, Prigozhin and his troops didn't kill anyone. Wagner troops were seen queuing up to buy snacks at a local eatery. There are videos of ordinary citizens mingling easily with the alleged coupists. One video showed an elderly citizen standing by his bicycle while berating the coup plotters for disturbing citizens instead of being on the battlefront to confront the enemies.

It was positively farcical, almost comical.

To the chagrin of the Collective West whose analysts and media predicted and salivate with almost libidinous excitement at the prospects of a civil war in Russia, the whole rebellion petered out as dramatically as it started.

This is how the Grayzone magazine put it: “Expecting a bloodbath and seismic political upheaval, corporate networks like CNN had budgeted wall-to-wall coverage of the ‘coup that wasn’t’ - filling cable news ‘green rooms’ with rent-a-generals, K Street think-tankers, and war-hungry former diplomatic corps hacks: For just over 12 hours, everyone from former ambassador McFaul to Zelensky to neocon pundit, Anne Applebaum, exploded with seemingly libidinal excitement about a supposed “civil war” that was certain to feature “Russians … killing Russians”, along with “lots of casualties” - and Putin “probably hiding somewhere”.

“On Saturday afternoon, however, news broke across the US that Prigozhin had struck a deal with President Lukashenko - to end his protest and go into exile. Thus ended a largely bloodless affair that ultimately saw fewer documented deaths than the 6th January, ‘Capitol Riot’.” - https://thegrayzone.com/2023/06/26/russias-civil-war-beltway-expert/

It was announced that the Belarussian strongman brokered a deal in which Prigozhin called off his tragi-comic coup and agreed to be exiled to Minsk. The Ministry of Defence (MoD), announced that the Wagner roops have been absorbed into the military and were not to be punished in any way.

Putin who had threatened fire and brimstone: "Those who staged the mutiny and took up arms against their comrades, they have betrayed Russia and will be brought to account. I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic mistake but make the only right choice: to stop taking part in criminal actions," was, uncharacteristically, silent.

Two days after the event, the taciturn and unflappable Defence Minister Shoigu went around to inspect military formations sporting his normal martial disposition. Chief of General Staff Gerasimov appears to be doing what he does best - running the military affairs of the Russian state behind the scene with no frills and no fanfare.

Both men were objects of Prigozhin's tantrums and were rumored to have been sacrificed to appease the egomaniac and megalomaniac former boss of the Wagner Group. Even the popular General Surovikin was rumored to have been roped in with the conspirators and jailed. None of the rumors panned out.

It is instructive that the media-loving Prigozhine didn't personally address the media after the failure of his rebellion, but a statement released by his press service said: They wanted to disband the Wagner PMC, we marched on June 23 on a justice march. Within a day we had not reached Moscow in 200 kilometers. During that time we have not shed a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now the moment has come when blood can be spilled. Understanding all the responsibility that Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our columns back to the field camps, according to the plan.”

What should worry not only Western officials and their lapdog analysts and media, but the rest of us, is the apparent ease with which the West allowed its pathological narcissism and visceral hatred of Russia to blind it from realizing the risk involved in a successful overthrow of the Putin’s government by a radical ultra-nationalist like Prigozhin, would pose to the West and the world.

The question has also never been asked what exactly is the West strategic goal in its proxy war against Russia?

If war, as they say, is the continuation of diplomacy by other means, it is time the West is asked how exactly it intends to achieve its goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia. How do you force the country with the most nuclear weapons on earth to comply with your dictation?

This potent question has not been posed by the compliant media in the West.

Russian filmmaker, producer and screenwriter, and Director General of the Mosfilm studios and noted Putin critic, Karen Shakhnazarov, tried to concentrate minds when she said: “I have read what they are saying in the West. Liz Truss is commenting again. But you have to be a complete idiot not to understand a very simple thing: what it would mean if such chaos if a civil war broke out in a country like Russia with its nuclear arms. And it is not those whom they want who would come to power, quite the contrary. Only the most radical, nuclear-minded people would take over. They wouldn’t hesitate for a moment. They would send the Poseidon to where it should go. And the Sarmat…[Russia’s heaviest and most advanced strategic nuclear missile]. Maybe this mutiny will clear minds somewhere about the danger. You have to be a complete idiot not to see this could be a catastrophe for the whole world. And so, even those here who may not be particularly loyal have to understand that the President is uniting us.”

It troubles greatly that Westerners, supposedly living in democracies, do not ask their officials the reason for their constant warring all over the world.

It is equally baffling that Westerners do not appear to see how counter-productive their governments' policies towards Russia have become. The unprecedented sanctions the West imposed on Russia have not affected the Russian economy as many in the West are coming to realize. Russia is enjoying what can be considered an industrial renaissance, thanks to Western firms leaving the country. Germany, on the other hand, is de-industrializing at a dizzying speed. Militarily, the West’s proxy war has not only boosted Russia’s military capabilities, it has exposed NATO as a paper tiger. The world has been treated to the spectacle of the Russians burning overpriced and over-marketed Western armaments on a truly industrial scale.

Cuo Bono:

If even after almost two weeks, it is still not clear what exactly happened, we can try to look at who gained what from the supposed rebellion.

It could be possible that the coup was launched at the instigation of Russian intelligence in what some analysts believed to be a classical Marskirovka to move Russian troops into a new axis of an offense without raising suspicions of Western ISRs and military planners.

We simply don't know.

What has become clear is that the Russian State and the Russian military benefited somewhat from the mutiny or coup attempt.

The foul-mouthed Prigozhin ended up in Minsk with some of his people. This means that one of the most capable arms of the Russian military is close to both Kyiv and the Polish border, where they can be activated to go in either direction when Russian military honchos made up their minds on which direction they want to swing the battle.

A Layout report: “In Belarus, they began to build camps to accommodate the fighters of PMC "Wagner".

The publication confirmed the construction of a camp in Osipovichi, Mogilev region for 8,000 fighters. According to them, there will be several camps in the 24 thousand square meters facilities.

The Belorussian Parliament has ratified the agreement between Belarus and Russia for the establishment of joint training centers. The original document which was signed in March of 2023 in Minsk long before the Prigozhin affair; has now been ratified by the Lower Chamber, and moves on up to the Upper.

The Lithuanian President Nausėda cried out: “In the event that Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner PMC appear on the territory of the Republic of Belarus, we will have to strengthen the entire eastern flank of NATO.” -

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki: “Poland is strengthening the border with Belarus amid reports of the transfer of Yevgeny Prigozhin and PMC Wagner there." -

Sky News: “PMC "Wagner" may launch an attack on Kyiv from Belarus. Prigozhin has kept tens of thousands of combat-ready fighters around him, who can pose a significant threat to Ukraine.”

President Putin came out smelling like Roses as his political base solidified beyond expectations. Despite his threats and bluffs, no prominent political, military, or intelligence figure came out in support of Prigozhin. Should he decide to run in next year's elections, Putin will be guaranteed smooth sailing - his approval rating is said to be close to 90%.

As for Prigozhin, his political career appeared to be buried forever.

The affair also exposed the West as staggeringly misinformed about the dynamics of Russian society. It doesn’t bode well when Western officials, media, and even intelligence officers appear to have a kindergarten understanding of their main military foe. Were the current crop of leaders in the Collective West so full of narcissistic hubris, they would have listened to the admonition of Winston Churchill: “Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.”

According to Jacques Baud, a Swiss military analyst, “In the end, this situation was nothing more than that of a company director trying to save his business and doing so impulsively and thoughtlessly, with potentially dramatic consequences for combatants on both sides in Ukraine. This crisis demonstrates the inability of Westerners to think and act according to facts, rather than expectations. The Ukrainian people are beginning to understand this.” - https://www.thepostil.com/author/jacques-baud/

News Flash: It was reported that Putin held a three-hour meeting with Prigozhin and some of his commanders on June 29. So much for a coup de tat!

©️ Fẹ́mi Akọ́mọ‌láfẹ́
Farmer, Writer, Published Author, and Social Commentator

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